Games about probabilities
http://www.mrnussbaum.com/cards/index.html
http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/intro_probability.html
http://regentsprep.org/Regents/math/tree/PracTre.htm

Info
http://www2.whidbey.net/ohmsmath/CMP/hlii.htm
http://regentsprep.org/Regents/math/math-topic.cfm?TopicCode=tree
http://regentsprep.org/Regents/math/tree/Ltree.htm

Expected Value

Expected value is an easy topic to explain. the easiest but accurate definition for it is the average payoff. this means that is what you expect to obtain.
a common question is why does it make sense taht expected value is sometimes called the long-term average? well the answer is simple. it makes sense, because the expected jvalue will always be the smae in the long-term average.so expected value is what is supposed to happen and the long-term average explains and gets really close to what is expected.
another question is how would you claculate the expected value for a probability situation? the answer is first i will find the long-term average and then divide my average by the number of tries.
expected value is a very useful system, or strategy to apply always. because it will help you to determine your profit or what you will have after a period of time.

Area Models and Tree Diagrams

Both, tree diagrams and area models are visual ways to represent or obtain clear information. a tree diagram is a diagram that is used to determine the number of possible outcomes in a probability situation. area models are also used to see the possible outcomes but in my opinion in a more organized and faster way than tree diagrams. based on the drawings we can find the theoretical probability. any way area models and tree diagrams go together. since each branch have equally likely chances between themselves the outcomes are added to find the probability of each. but when the branches have a different number of outcomes, they are not equally likely between themselves.
for example a problem that you may obtain and that would ask you to do an area model would be something like this. if you have to take a path only one each time, to get to cave a or to cave b the process is something like this; in your first choice you get three options red road, blue road or green road. if you choose red road then you get to more options you can either choose yellow road and get to cave b, or green road that gets you to cave a. if you chose in your first option road blue, then you have three more new options, either blue or green road that will lead you to cave b, or red road that would take you to cave a. and if in your first option you chose green then you go straight to cave a. this is a probability game, and now you have to find the probability of you landing on cave a or cave b.
then to find the probability is when you use the area model. first you dived the area in 3 equal sections, that represent your first options that you had red blue or green. on the first section that is the red road you dived it in two equal sections obtaining 1/6 chances of cave b and 1/6 of cave a. on your second section you divided it in three sections getting two 1/9 for cave b and 1/9 for cave a. and for your last section you just label it 1/3 of the whole are model for cave a. then your final step is to add the fractions from cave a getting 11/18 meaning 61% of chances of landing in cave a. and 7/18 for cave b meaning 39% of chances.
this is just an explanation of how area models work.

Finding theoretical and experimental probabilities

Theoretical probability is the answer that is supposed to come out. experimental probabilities, are the probabilities that you obtained after an experiment. this is an important topic that is on the syllabus, it is an essential skill that was learned since early childhood. and you would use it until probably the day you die. you may not even notice but the word PROBABILITY, or words that are similar like probable, or probably you use them in your everyday daily life.

You use probabilities for everything, you may not even notice but you do. for example you normally use theoretical probabilities that include the exact probability. it is all about the chances you have of winning or loosing. the world is full of probabilities, in schools, the supermarket. mostly businesses that always before opening or even being created look at the probabilities of their company being successful or failing. there would always exists risks but you have to make sure that the probabilities of doing well are higher than the ones of failing. everything in life have risks and sometimes the risks are too high. when i say risks i am referring to the probabilities of not doing well.

The theoretical probabilities are just an matter of chances. and sometimes in the experimental probabilities the outcome is completely different than what you expected to be. but that is how real life works. you may have the standards but in the practice the outcomes or results would always have a small margin of mistake or difference. that is why this is called probabilities anything can happen but the chances of it occurring maybe greater or smaller.

Introduction

Welcome to my blog, my name is Nicole De Francisco but my friends call me Nicky. I´m in 8th, in my fourteen years of life this is the first time that I have been assigned to do a blog. It is a fascinating experience and sensation to do something that can be read by the rest of the world. I am going to take my time to explain you about probabilities, this includes finding experimental and theoretical probabilities, doing tree diagrams, area models and expected values. This weren't the topics that i chose, but the ones I was assigned by my computer teacher. but they are still very interesting.

My goal in this project is to create a blog about my math topics, so that students or anyone that wants to learn about probabilities can come in and learn some fascinanting facts and strategies. I am an eighth grader, but in this project I am going to play the role of a teacher that wants to show her students about probabilities. That is one of the subjects that are present on the school´s eighth grade syllabus. My work is obviausly directed and the students, but also to the school´s authorities because they must aprove my work. My final product would be in this blog and would include visual information, and the necesarry work for my students to learn.

Bibliography:

http://www.mrnussbaum.com/cards/index.html http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/intro_probability.html http://regentsprep.org/Regents/math/tree/PracTre.htm http://www2.whidbey.net/ohmsmath/CMP/hlii.htm http://regentsprep.org/Regents/math/math-topic.cfm?TopicCode=tree http://regentsprep.org/Regents/math/tree/Ltree.htm

but mostly i got my information about my first semester notebook. From my math class with my teacher Consuelo Vega.